Fantasy Baseball Breakdown

By Mike Brody
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The Six-Month Grind

We’re three weeks into the 2006 baseball season, and if your fantasy team looks anything like mine, you’re ready to unload half of your roster. I know it’s hard, but be patient. The worse thing you could do right now is panic and make a bad trade or drop a good player.

Baseball, more than any other sport, is driven by statistics. It’s a long season with a lot of ups and downs for most players. In the end, the numbers usually even out. If you stick with your guys long enough, they should come around and start producing like you expected them to.

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Off to a Hot Start

While it’s very difficult to watch your team stumble out of the gate (as I’m writing this, my offense is a collective 0-15 today and I’m about ready to have a fire sale), there was a reason why you drafted these guys. If you were lucky enough – or smart enough, depending on how you look at it – to draft Chris Shelton, Jonny Gomes or Nick Swisher, you’re probably at the top of your league, right now. But are these guys really going to lead the league in home runs?

Manny Ramirez hit his first two home runs of the season, last weekend. Mark Teixeira and Richie Sexson have three and two homers, respectively, through the first three weeks. These guys are all perennial 40-home-run-hitters, and barring injury, you can be sure that they will get their numbers by the season’s end.

Waiting for the Right Time

Everyone’s heard the cliché “buy low, sell high.” It’s sound advice. Knowing the right time to deal that guy who’s off to a hot start is the key to making this happen. There’s no way Shelton, Gomes and Swisher are going to keep up the pace they’ve set so far – Shelton’s already started to slow down – but how can you not ride their hot streaks a little longer? Just don’t wait too long if you’re planning on dealing them.

Knowing players’ trends is another key in making the right deal at the right time. Some players are traditionally slow starters, like Ramirez and Jim Edmonds, and trading for them at the end of their slow start could mean big stats for you the rest of the way. A lot of hitters heat up when the weather does too, so they could be busting out of these slumps any day now.

On the Rise

Targeting players who are showing signs of breaking out is another key to making the right roster adjustments. Here are a few players who might be available and could definitely help some teams:

Josh Barfield – The rookie second baseman has excelled since being moved to the No. 2 spot in the Padres lineup. He’s got his average over .300 and has 2 HRs and 6 steals. Grab him if he’s still available.

Ty Wigginton – Playing for his third team in four years, the journeyman third baseman seems to have found a home in Tampa Bay. He’s taken advantage of Aubrey Huff’s knee injury and already has 8 home runs and 20 RBI. Playing in hitter-friendly Tropicana Field should help, too. Ride him while he’s hot.

Brad Hawpe – The Colorado Rockies outfielder has established himself as the everyday right fielder and is firmly entrenched in the heart of the Rockies lineup. He’s batting over .340 and already has slugged 5 HRs. The 2000 College World Series MVP is well on his way to a .300-30-100 season. You never can go wrong having a Rockie in your lineup.

The Pitching Hole

While there is plenty of time to make up ground on offense, falling behind in the pitching categories – especially ERA and WHIP – can be a killer. Avoiding those complete disasters in the early season is a key to remaining competitive on the mound.

With pitchers, it’s all about the matchups. Don’t be afraid to bench one of your better pitchers for a riskier play if the matchup is right. Throwing a marginal starter against Kansas City or Pittsburgh is always better than having just about any starter face the Yankees or pitch at Colorado.

Whether you find yourself at the top of your league or at the bottom of the pack after these first three weeks, don’t stop looking to make your team better. Stocking your bench with productive players who could be used as trade bait is always a good idea. The inevitable injuries will come, and having players to step in during those times will help you avoid having to make a desperate deal.

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Michael Brody

Writer/Editor
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Mike has been writing and reporting on sports for 14 years.

He started his career as a sports writer and radio broadcaster at Cal State Northridge. Mike has written for the Los Angeles Daily News and has been a writer/editor for KNBC in Los Angeles, where he worked on the nightly sportscast with Fred Roggin. He also wrote and edited material for NBC network specials and has more than 10 years of online journalism experience.

Although he lives in Southern California, Mike was born and raised in the Boston area and is a diehard fan of all the Boston professional teams.

Waiting for Take-Off

By J.D. Jackson
Wagerweb.com Contributing Writer

You would not know it by their 10-4 record through the first two-and-a-half weeks of play, but the Houston Astros need Roger Clemens pitching for them.

It’s not too often that you read about a team needing a 43-year-old pitcher to have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, but Clemens is not a pitcher who comes along that often. At 42, he put together one of his more stunning seasons in his illustrious 22-year career by going 13-8 with a 1.87 ERA, striking out 185 batters and walking just 62 in 211.3 innings. While Chris Carpenter won the Cy Young for the National League, last season (Clemens finished third behind Carpenter and Dontrelle Willis), his 2005 was one of his three or four best seasons over the course of his career (better than his 2004, in which he did win the Cy Young Award). His 1.008 WHIP was the second-best in his career (bested only in 1986), his 1.87 ERA was the best in his career, and his 44 earned runs allowed was also the best in his career with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. And he was 42.

Clemens tired down the stretch. He labored his way through the playoffs, going 4-3 while helping guide the Astros to the World Series. It was clear that Clemens had worn down, and an injured Clemens posted a 13.50 ERA in his lone outing as the Astros were swept by the Chicago White Sox. Had Clemens not been injured and tired, the history books might remember the 2005 season a little differently.

Without Clemens, this season, Houston is winning games by mashing the ball, which is not something that the ’Stros are accustomed to. They are second in the National League in team average, fourth in home runs, tied for second in runs scored, and second in OPS. This is largely the same team that finished near the bottom in all of those categories in 2005. Though Roy Oswalt continues to prove that he is an ace pitcher, and Brandon Backe has surprised early on, Andy Pettitte has struggled to a 1-2, 6.35 ERA start. Wandy Rodriguez has started off well, but he is a guy who would come out of the bullpen, ideally. Ezequiel Astacio, the Astros’ emergency starter in the 2005 playoffs, has been downright pathetic in his two appearances, this season. The presence of Clemens allows everyone to shift down a spot in the rotation: Oswalt becomes the #2, Pettitte becomes the #3, Backe becomes a #4, and then the Astros can choose between Rodriguez, Astacio, or Taylor Buchholz for the fifth spot. The rotation goes from being second-best in its own division (behind the Cardinals’ deep rotation) to becoming the best rotation in the game, simply by adding Clemens. Assuming that the Cardinals turn it on like they are able to do, assuming the Mets continue to play spectacular baseball while the Braves play their normal brand of solid ball…the Astros without Clemens will have a hard time winning even the Wild Card. The offense just is not good enough, and the pitching just is not deep enough.


The possibility still exists, of course, that Clemens will rejoin the Astros in May. That period exists because the Astros did not offer Clemens arbitration. There are other teams, though less realistic, in the mix. The Red Sox have spoken to Clemens, but here’s to doubting that you will ever see Clemens back in a Red Sox uniform. It is awfully hard to cross a river when you have burned just about every single bridge that leads back to the other side. The Texas Rangers are also interested and seem more than willing to pay any amount of money required to get Clemens to pitch in Arlington. It is just not evident that Clemens reciprocates those feelings, though pitching for the Rangers would satisfy his requirement of staying close to home. The Yankees have called, as well, but Clemens left the Yankees to return home; it is unlikely that Clemens would leave home to return to the Yankees.

Besides that, Clemens’ leaving the Astros for any of those teams would leave a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths. Clemens went to Houston to pitch specifically for the Astros. He wanted to be close to his home, close to his family, and able to spend more time away from the game while still competing. In other words, while he was getting paid the highest salary of his career ($18 million in 2005), Clemens was not doing it for the money. The man has made $121 million over the course of his career in salary alone. If he became the latest Yankee hired gun, it would be a disgusting act to many, many people.

No, the only place where Clemens truly fits is in Houston. And though there was some tension about the Astros’ not waiting on Clemens’ decision about retirement and not offering him arbitration, it is apparent that Clemens would return to Houston in May after taking the first month of the season off. It would allow Clemens to continue resting, the entire month of April, essentially adding a month onto his stamina and effectiveness in 2006, assuming that he is healed completely (and after a 1-1, 2.08 ERA, 0.81 WHIP in two starts during March’s World Baseball Classic, it is safe to assume that he is the same old Rocket). For Houston, the equation is simple: Clemens equals another trip deep into the playoffs, while no Clemens might mean no playoffs at all for 2005’s National League Champions.

Even at 43, Clemens still makes all the difference in the world.

MLB early season observations

By Brad Halfond
Wagerweb.com Contributing Writer

Is there a more dominant threat to opposing pitchers in the National League than Albert Pujols?

The monster slugger has lit up scoreboards early in the season and sent several managers home wondering why they ever challenged the 26-year-old future Hall of Famer.

Pujols’ nine dingers lead the league and this guy must be now considered, along with Alex Rodriquez, one of the best players in baseball. Pujols clearly leads the list of standout individual performances as the 2006 baseball season gets underway.

Other players making an early impact in the senior circuit include David Wright, the steady third baseman on the resurgent New York Mets, and Ryan Langerhans of the Atlanta Braves. Both of those teams should stay in the hunt for the NL East title as the Mets will try to break the stranglehold on the division that Bobby Cox and Atlanta have maintained for more than eleven years.

But back to Pujols. We kind of had a hint that this would be his year from the way he ended the 2005 season with that massive blast that gave the Redbirds a victory over Houston in game five of last year’s NLCS.

Now Pujols has a new stadium to play in, fans who love and adore him, and the serious potential to reach 60 home runs this season. The only thing that Pujols needs is for his Cardinals to reach the heights that the White Sox did last year and win their first World Series title since 1982.

A few hundred miles to the north is the sleeping giant known as the Milwaukee Brewers. This is a team that has already surprised some with its ability to come back; if they can get their bats heated up with the weather, they could challenge for a wild card berth.

Overall, the early theme of the 2006 season might be parity. The Cardinals lost pitching and won’t be as dominant this year, while the NL West should continue to be mired in mediocrity. Unless the New York Mets can keep up their hot start and add an arm or two in mid-season, this league is definitely up for grabs.

It’s still too early to tell what will happen in the American League, but the usual contenders are starting to emerge. The Red Sox have their energetic new pitcher, Josh Beckett, and Curt Schilling appears to be at full strength, while the Yankees are going to rely on the older arms of Mussina and Johnson. Boston has more speed in 2006, while New York’s bullpen is practically brand new.

If you’re looking for early season surprises in the American League, that honor goes to Chris Shelton of the Detroit Tigers. This kid might revitalize the entire city of Detroit and bring baseball back to a somewhat competitive level. It is very uncommon for an unknown player like Shelton to be hitting with such power. Shelton had hit only 19 home runs in his previous 434 at-bats and now he is leading the league in long balls. Shelton is doing all this from the sixth position, but expect him to move up to the cleanup spot eventually.

The team to watch in the AL is Oakland, with its fearsome trio of Chavez, Thomas, and Bradley. If those guys stay hot and the young arms produce, Oakland will have a great chance to top Anaheim and win the West. The White Sox also have a good chance of repeating, but for the sake of our sanity, I would rather listen to Metallica than Ozzie Guillen any day.

What would the early season be without a mention of Barry Bonds? The Giants slugger has been getting more publicity off the field lately and maybe that is why his hitting and home runs (none yet) are starting to suffer. The other explanation is that Barry is just getting old and all of his various injuries have added up to Bonds becoming not quite the player he used to be. In the end, I’m going to say Barry hits about 25–30 home runs and retires after the season but before he has a chance to pass Hank Aaron for the all-time lead. Would that make Commissioner Selig happy?

Here are some of my observations on the opening weeks of the season around baseball.

New Busch Stadium – I can see the Arch more clearly, but did they even try to make it look different than old Busch stadium?

Giants’ outfield – Pass the Geritol. If these guys last the entire season then McCovey Cove will freeze over.

Pedro – The guy has nerves of steel and will continue to be successful unless a manager steps up and throws a ball near his head. He takes way too many liberties with players, with fewer consequences than any other pitcher I've ever seen.

Soriano – Shhhh …. They don’t want you to play 2B because they have an all-star there already and somebody in management must have watched a film of you bobbling balls in the Bronx for two seasons.

Marlins – and this hasn’t moved yet because….

Upcoming Devil Rays’ name change suggestion – Flounders

Beckett – Okay, we get it, you’re excited and happy that you struck somebody out. Bring that act to the Bronx and see what kind of reaction you will get.

Jeter – How come this guy doesn’t have a bubble gum endorsement contract yet? Hubba Bubba, are you listening?

Cabrera goes for O's in series finale

The Orioles fell behind early and never caught up on Sunday, falling in a 9-3 loss against the Angels. Baltimore still sits one game above the break-even mark and will play the Angels one more time before switching opponents.
"It was a weird game. Everything was kind of going their way," said Kris Benson, who started for Baltimore on Sunday. "It was a little strange, but we had things going our way the first two days. Unfortunately, it didn't work out today."
The series finale features two pitchers who have gotten off to a rough start this baseball season. Daniel Cabrera will be matched up against Jeff Weaver in an interesting collision of live arms. Cabrera is 1-1 with a career 8.10 ERA against Los Angeles, and Weaver has a 3-3 record and a 4.36 ERA in eight appearances against Baltimore.
The O's have hit 19 homers and allowed an equal number this season. They've scored 71 runs and allowed 69, with a blowout win and a blowout loss on their record. Baltimore has turned 16 double plays and hit into 13. The Orioles have won five of their last seven games, but their starting pitchers are just 5-5 this season.
The Orioles have lost this season series in four of the last six years, racking up a 27-30 record since the start of the 2000 season. Overall, Baltimore is 319-249 against the Angels. In the last six-plus seasons, the O's are 15-15 against the Angels at Camden Yards.

Ray right at home

ST. PETERSBURG -- Chris Ray has had a whirlwind start to the season. Between his first Major League Spring Training camp, trying to make the Orioles roster and the pressure of filling B.J. Ryan's shoes, there have been new experiences around every corner.
Until Friday, that is, when things began looking a little familiar.
Ray grew up in Tampa, Fla., where the Orioles are in the midst of a four-game stand against the Devil Rays, and said although baseball is baseball anywhere he goes, he welcomes the comfortable surroundings.
"It's always nice having my family and friends here," said Ray, who left about 19 tickets for them. "And they like to see me play, so it's good for them."
It seems the trip home is paying off on the field for Ray as well. The right-hander collected his second save on Monday after fanning three Rays and allowing one hit. Both of the closer's saves this season have come against Tampa Bay.
Ray is filling the spot vacated by Ryan, who last year had 36 saves for Baltimore before moving on to Toronto as a free agent. For the 24-year-old Ray, this challenge is no different than any other presented to him so far, and he boils it down to a simple plan of attack: Just throw strikes and get hitters out.
So far, Ray's blueprint seems to be working. He is averaging a little better than a strikeout per inning (46 in 43 2/3), with a 1-3 record and 2.47 ERA through 44 career games.
"He hasn't seemed fazed by it so far," Baltimore manager Sam Perlozzo said of Ray stepping into Ryan's role. "He's had two opportunities that were three-run leads, but that's good. I think if we can write a script out, we'd say, 'Let's give us about four or five four-run saves, and then three or four three-run saves and build up some confidence.' He's going to get tested all through the year, and we'll see how it turns it out. But if he throws the ball like he's thrown it these past few times, he's going to get through it."

Notes: Mora contract talks stalled

BALTIMORE -- The window appears to have slammed shut on Melvin Mora's proposed contract extension. The third baseman's self-imposed deadline came and went on Sunday, but the two sides didn't move any closer to a resolution.
"If they come with something, of course, we're going to talk. But I don't want to go out this baseball season thinking about that," said Mora. "I just want to let the fans know that my price went down before they answered to us. We're not supposed to do that, but we did because we want to make the deal done. They haven't come up at all."
Despite constant contact between the two sides, Mora said that the Orioles haven't made a formal offer since late February. That proposal, believed to be for three years and $24 million, was around $6 million less than Mora's initial request. The veteran said his agent offered to split the difference, but Baltimore wouldn't budge.
"That's the problem. We haven't heard [anything] from them," he said. "They've stayed where they've been since Feb. 21. We've come down before they answered. Like I told my agent, we're not supposed to do that after not hearing an answer from them. But we came down because we want to make the deal done."
Jim Duquette, the team's vice president of baseball operations, addressed the subject but refused to go into specifics.
"Nothing's really changed since yesterday," he said after Baltimore's Sunday workout. "We're not going to talk about it every day or give daily updates on the thing. We'll continue to have dialogue, and that's all we're going to [say] about it."
The team may take that stance, but Mora has had plenty to say. The two-time All-Star has consistently said that he'll test the market if he doesn't have a deal in place by Opening Day. He's also said that he doesn't want the negotiations hanging over his head during the season. He just wants to concentrate on baseball, and both sides understand that perspective.
"He's been clear since Day 1. When Opening Day's here, he doesn't want to have to think about it," said Duquette. "That's the way to go about it. The dialogue should be between us and the agent anyway. That's why it's set up the way it is."
That may be the case, but Mora's adamant about his deadline. He said he still has to talk to his agent, but as far as he's concerned, the issue has already been decided.
"If they came back with us and tell us something by today, we'll sit down and talk about it," he said. "The season starts tomorrow."
"He's a professional, and however the negotiations finish, I think he's going to play the season and I think he's going to have a great year," said Duquette. "I don't think it will affect him at all."
Batter up: Baltimore manager Sam Perlozzo named his Opening Day lineup on Sunday, but there weren't many surprises involved.
The front five -- Brian Roberts, Luis Matos, Mora, Miguel Tejada and Jay Gibbons -- are all holdovers from last year's team. The roster gets a little different after that, with Kevin Millar, Jeff Conine, Javy Lopez and Ramon Hernandez rounding out the bottom of batting order.
"The one thing we've been able to do with our lineup is put professional hitters all the way through our lineup," said Perlozzo. "I don't see an easy out in that lineup. In that respect, I feel good about the fact that we have a chance to get a hit every time someone steps to the plate."
Lopez has only batted eighth for one at-bat with the Orioles, but he's had some historical success in that slot. In 64 games out of the eight-hole, Lopez is a .276 hitter (40-for-145) with 10 home runs and 34 RBIs.
"It doesn't matter. It's something that I know for a fact is going to change," said Lopez, speaking of the batting order. "I'm not worried about that, to be honest. All I have to worry about is staying healthy and trying to get my timing back."
Conine, Matos and Gibbons are Perlozzo's starting outfielders, an arrangement that leaves Nick Markakis, Corey Patterson and David Newhan on the bench. The manager said it should be difficult to juggle that group all season, but he also said that everyone will get a chance to state their case for more playing time.
"It's not going to be an easy task. I'm hoping it's going to be a very difficult task, actually," he said. "I'll welcome that challenge. We'll do the best we can for a while. If we have a problem, maybe we'll have to do something."

BASEBALL ODDS!!!